Models and algorithms for identification and estimation of ecological and economic risks

Abstract

 This article is devoted to the problem of analysis, assessment and management of ecological and economic risks of enterprise for transportation of natural gas. Risk of accidents occurrence on gas pipelines and compressor stations is considered. The following models and approaches to the stages of risk analysis are proposed: fault tree and logical and probabilistic method for risk identification, independent binary models for estimation of defect probability, generalized Pareto distribution for potential damage assessment and capital calculation required to cover potential large losses.